BRACING FOR DESTINY: AUSTRALIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES

 

INTRODUCTION

The largest country in the smallest continent, Australia, was shaped by waves of immigrants - including prisoners, indentured laborers and ambitious free men -and is home to a marginalized yet resilient indigenous population. Although a vast unique terrain hosting the Great Barrier Reef, the harsh claustrophobic outback and thriving populous cities, Australia has many challenges common with the WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich and Democratic) countries such as an ageing population, and an aggressive China. Then there are other concerns unique to its geography and its place in the pacific such as the proximity to the Asian theatre of power and a capricious climate.

With a population of 26 million, Australia accounts for just 0.33% of the World’s population. The majority of them reside in areas facing the Indian and Pacific oceans. Beside the populous continents of Asia and Africa, Australia is barely visible in a demographic map because the people are thinly spread over the huge, mega-diverse landmass. Its red center is sparsely populated. However, the nation has achieved glowing ranks in the happiness index, human development index and other matrices of progress. Anticipating the challenges taking shape and countering them with well-thought-out policy is essential to maintaining Australia’s gritty pragmatism and excellence. Here we explore immigration, demographic patterns, security concerns and climate change and the way they will impact Australia.

 

A CLIMATE OF CRISES 

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) needed to keep the population of a region stable is 2.1. In 2022, The TFR for Australia stands at 1.79 after a 0.5 decline from 2021. Once the TFR of a country falls below the replacement level, it is on a downward spiral and almost never seems to climb back up. There are many consequences to this eventual disappearance of people, and this can be seen in real-time in countries like Japan and Poland.

With a decline in population, the burden on the workforce will increase on many fronts. A greater dependency ratio means the dwindling youth will have to take care of the numerous old in their family and bear the increasing taxes needed for funding the welfare of the aging population. The possible solutions to such a crisis are pro-natalist policies and immigration and the former doesn’t have many success stories. Encouraging women to have kids should not take place by reducing their labor participation either as this too impacts the economy and may end up affecting women’s agency. As people live longer, the frequency of chronic illnesses and cognitive decline also increases. This will make a much more efficient health infrastructure necessary with effective screening and diagnostic technology. E-health and other technology-assisted innovations have been touted as ways to better monitor the health conditions of people to affect early detection and prevention.

Living longer also implies retiring later in life. There is no reason a people with a life expectancy of 80 years should retire at 60. The period of health also extends with improvement in life expectancy. Directing people to jobs that can still be done at a later age will thus become important.

Australia’s largest trading partner China is in a similar demographic trap with people aging rapidly and fertility rate tending to startling lows. Thus, population decline will put other countries in similar stress resulting in less migrants and direct foreign investment thereby affecting economy further. Immigrants may come from other countries such as India and Indonesia. As over one fourth of the population is expected to be older than 65 by 2050 in Australia, people from other countries may have to be brought via migration to provide aged care as well.

UN expects global population to peak in 2089. In the worst-case scenario, it will start falling from 2054. But the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will be growing still. AI will be increasingly adopted as well, and it probably will meet more and more requirements in countries with declining population. Those with low-level skills may find fewer job opportunities in future thereby sparking another wave of instability. However, when it comes to AI all bets are off, as no one knows if the jobs added as a result will be a net positive.

The issue of unwelcome refugees and illegal migrants arriving through smugglers had provoked hardline positions from major political parties. There are also concerns regarding Islamification and threat to Australian values. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the number of overseas born Australians reached 120-year high in 2015. There is significant migration from India and China with median age much younger than among similar cohorts from other countries.

A graying nation is also a conservative one, more cautious than adventurous. Risk-aversion may not result in innovation causing ‘secular stagnation’. Although Australia tries to do a good job of integrating skilled immigrants through fair and multicultural norms, greater conservative vigor may deepen anxieties regarding loss of national identity.

For long being a British colony and thereafter aligning with the Unites States, Australia has long had allies in the defense frontier. During the cold war in the 1950s and early 1960s, the major threat to Australia was the Communist Indonesia armed to the teeth by the Soviet Union. Later when the weaponry fell into disrepair, that challenge receded. But today Australia is in a quandary as its biggest trading partner challenges the rules-based world order, tries to interfere in internal politics and flexes its muscles in the Indo-Pacific. As a result, there is a split in the economic and security interests of the country.

The hope that liberalism will hitch-hike into China via the Trojan horse of open market has disastrously backfired. Instead, China has embarked on the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, sending surveillance and censorship via loans, infrastructure, economic incentives and even its academic intelligentsia. That China could even influence Cambridge University Press and other influential institutions and publications to self-censor with the bargaining chip of access to the vast Chinese market, is a positively harmful development.

 

Australian academic Clive Hamilton went public with allegations that Allen& Unwin had withdrawn his forthcoming book Silent Invasion: How China Is Turning Australia into a Puppet State due to fears of defamation litigation. (White 2018:116)

 

Even the UN seems effete in holding China responsible for the Uyghur torture in Xinjiang.  Turning even academics and students into spies for advancing the interests of the State, China seems to use modern technology and ancient instincts to devise evermore dystopian lives.

With the US more and more openly critiquing China, the inflammatory speech and actions over Taiwan, and trade decisions trying to counter China, many regard Cold war 2.0 to be already afoot. That US cannot be depended on as before is only adding to Australia’s worries. And whether or not American dominance can be relied upon, the time has come to concentrate on security and alliance-building. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue of the Unites States, Japan, India and Australia as well as the trilateral security pact between the US, UK and Australia (AUKUS) are examples for such recently formed alliances. The loss of trust rising from American mismanagement of Afghan departure, Trump’s policy of isolationism, the majority of Asian nations rallying behind One China policy and a doubt as to whether American words will be backed by actions have caused a justified disquiet about the future. They  underline the potential for Australia to be engaged in a costly and lonely war in the middle of major world powers. A neglected area for Australia is investment in the infrastructure of other countries. Although it is difficult to compete with the formidably funded Belt and Road Initiative, alliance has to be built on the economic front as well.

The greatest percentage of Aboriginal population is concentrated in Northern Australia which has seen erratic economic development. Although more people are moving there and the gold rush and industry have improved the area, the native populace continues to languish under poverty and marginalization. Although their traditional beliefs also play a role in an antipathy to the capitalist system, many are aware that actual jobs are the way to the advancement of the community. Here, the government could create aboriginal enterprises and opportunities to make use of their skills in land and fire management.

 Economically, Australia is a leading exporter of LNG (Liquified Natural Gas). However, demand for LNG may plateau in the future due to the increasing focus on harnessing renewable energy.  The countries of ASEAN, Japan, China and South Korea in the region are all planning to utilize renewable energy. The need to diversify such an important avenue of export is crucial from the perspective of both economic prudence and climate change.

The vastness of Australian landscape with mountains, deserts and rich forests encompasses a range of climates and attendant challenges. However, climate change may play a larger role in making droughts and other extreme weather conditions more difficult and frequent. Food security, land available for cultivation, infrastructure and availability of water are a few crucial domains that will be affected. Bushfire is a particular danger that is becoming more intense due to days of high temperature and winds. Tropical cyclones and hail-risk will also become much more frequent. The possibility of environmental refugees in the future is also quite considerable.

Already a land of extremely trying weather, the increasing scale and number of bush fires and flooding rains are considered to be aggravated by global warming and climate change. Habitat loss through intense land clearing, loss of wildlife and vegetation, acute heat stress and resultant decrease in productivity are all hard environmental concerns. That there is political split in support for various energy sources is another obstacle to presenting a united front against global warming. Providing leadership in this fight, working on emergency preparedness and catastrophe prevention are crucial.

 

CONCLUSION

Apart from a rising China, international crime, illegal fishing, trafficking in drugs and people are also serious challenges for the country. Australia needs a greater focus on defense with strong maritime dimensions. There needs to be more attention paid to North Australia as well as the key to engaging with regional partners like Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. What Australia and by extension, the West needs in this regard is to refashion their role in the future. When Bruno Maçães, the political scientist announces through his book that “History Has Begun”, or when analysts speak of the reemergence of Civilization states and the coming of an Asian century what becomes evident is the need for Europe and Asia to coexist.

 In accordance with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP), data sovereignty and involvement in the data repository system have to be ensured for the native population. Protection of aboriginal rights, biodiversity conservation, climate change and renewable energy sources, openness to immigration and declining population are chief concerns. They are interconnected and need concerted ideas and solutions all over the globe.